Two Sides of the Sync Ledger

Every sync cuts two cheques. One shrank in 2025. The other kept growing. The trade only printed the one that shrank.

By the numbers

$641m: what flowed to labels and recordings worldwide in 2025

−2.0%: that figure's drop on the year, the first since 2020

~$1.55bn: what flowed to US songwriters and publishers in 2024

~$2.2bn+: a rough floor for the global sync economy

The line they printed, the line they didn't

Every sync cuts two cheques. One to the recording. One to the song. IFPI counts the first. NMPA counts a slice of the second.

The first cheque got smaller in 2025. Down 2% to $641 million globally, the first dip after four straight years of growth. IFPI made it takeaway number nine in their annual report. The trade ran with the number.

The second cheque is bigger and didn't shrink. US songwriters and publishers collected an estimated $1.55 billion in sync money in 2024, the most recent year on record, after rising every year of the period. The cheque that doesn't make the slide is more than twice the one that does.

Why might the recording side have dipped?

A few theories worth testing.

Brand budgets are tighter. Fewer briefs, smaller deals, harder negotiations. The recording side feels it first.

AI dollars moved. UMG settled with Udio in October 2025. Warner settled with Suno in November. Money that might once have come through a standard sync brief now sits in licensing categories counted differently, or in escrow while Sony's cases finish.

More people, same briefs. More supervisors, more libraries, more producer-led pitches against a flat slate of campaigns. Rates softened on what got placed.

The most interesting theory. The song held its value while the recording gave ground. Same placement, same campaign, different splits. If publishing cheques come in higher when NMPA reports in June, that is the actual story.

Over to you

Working in either lane? What did you see in 2025? Was your master rate softer? Did your publishing cheque arrive on time? Did you watch a brief get killed late? Tell us in the comments. A follow-up lands after NMPA's June reveal.